“…a good Latter-day Saint could never be a Republican.”
“…a good Latter-day Saint could never be a Republican.”
Don't be alarmed. You'll survive this.
The title of this essay is not a judgment or a political opinion. It is not a joke. And it is certainly not, by any stretch, an attempt to weaponize the gospel to promote a particular political agenda. Republicans, Democrats, and others, read on.
In the days of the early Church in Utah, from 1870 to 1891, most Church members did not belong to either of the prevailing U.S. political parties. Instead, most belonged to the “People’s Party,” which was backed by the Church and (among other things) opposed those who were opposed to polygamy. Church leaders eventually dissolved that party, and encouraged the Saints to join either the Republicans or the Democrats:
…Most Saints believed they should join the Democratic Party, since the Republican Party had typically led antipolygamy efforts against the Church. In many communities, the prevailing attitude was that a good Latter-day Saint could never be a Republican.1
Notably, though, leaders didn’t tell Church members which party to join, or even appear to believe that one party had more claim to truth than the other. Francis Lyman, then an Apostle, specifically highlighted that the parties weren’t as different from each other as we see them now:
During an afternoon priesthood meeting, Francis reminded the men that the Church needed members in both political parties. "We don't want anyone who is a Democrat to change," he reassured them. But he said that Saints who did not feel strong ties to the Democratic Party should consider joining the Republicans. "There is much less difference between the two parties than at first thought," he noted.2
The contrast between then and now is obvious, and even humorous. Gone are the days when Latter-day Saints were mostly Democrats. But gone are the days when Latter-day Saints were mostly Republicans, too.
The data on this is pretty clear, and in some cases it might reflect what you expect. The oldest LDS voters, born in 1960 and before, largely vote Republican—70% or so—and have for a long time. But while you might expect the shift to be happening in the youngest generations, it’s happening noticeably among even 40- and 50-year-old Latter-day Saints. That’s not just a youth movement; that’s a movement, full stop.
Data from Ryan Burge, a Baptist pastor and assistant professor of political science at Eastern Illinois University, called “one of the country’s leading data analysts on religion and politics,”3 provides a good window into this shift. Let’s start here:
Among sixty-year-old Latter-day Saints, the political gulf is massive. Seventy percent say that they are Republicans, 20% indicate that they are Democrats. Said another way: Republicans outnumber Democrats by at least three and a half to one among the retired set.
But those numbers start to narrow when looking at younger Mormons. Among forty-year-olds, 60% are Republicans and almost 30% are Democrats. The gap is now just two Republicans for every Democrat. Among college aged Latter-day Saints, it’s even smaller - just over half of them align with the GOP and 35% are Democrats. A fifteen-point gap. It was 50 points for those around sixty years old.4
An interesting aspect of this shift, though, is that we aren’t just seeing a younger generation grow up with different political views—we’re seeing members of the Church actually change party affiliation later in life. Again, this isn’t happening much with the oldest Saints, but it’s starting to show with members of the Church born in the 1970s (which, while it doesn’t feel like that far in the past, is half a century ago). The shift didn’t happen at that point, though; much of it shifting is happening just within the last 15 years, or even the last 10. This is how Dr. Burge frames it, using cohort data:
For those LDS born in the 1940s, 1950s, or 1960s, there is little to report. Large shares were Republican in 2008 and that same proportion are aligned with the GOP now. In each case the share who were Republicans in 2008 is statistically the same as 2022.
However, among those born in the 1970s, you can begin to see the beginnings of a shift away from the Republicans. In 2008, 68% of this cohort identified with the GOP. In 2022, that share had dropped ten points to 58%. Most of that movement happened between 2012 and 2016, by the way.
What I can hint at with those born in the 1970s comes into full bloom in younger cohorts. Seventy-six percent of Mormons born in the 1980s were Republicans in 2008. That share today is just above 50%. You can also see that same thing happened in those born in the 1990s and the 2000s. I think it’s pretty fair to say now that 50-55% of Mormons born in 1980 or later are Republicans - it’s closer to 75% among those born before 1970.
As older generations pass away, this has the makings of a “seismic political shift“ (again, Dr. Burge’s words) among members of the Church. If Saints born in the 1980s and later—this feels personal, as someone born in the early 80s—are only 50% Republican, and eventually that ratio is equal between Democrats and Republicans across all generational cohorts, that will be a very different Church than the one I grew up in. You’ll see more Democrats in high Church offices, and likely a shift in some Church priorities and stances, and possibly even policies, over time.
This might worry you, or it might thrill you. I don’t think our Heavenly Parents care much one way or the other about which party we belong to, or who we vote for (within reason). They see Their children on both sides of the aisle, representing what each thinks is right; and I think ultimately They just hope we’ll be good people.
And if God doesn’t care how people vote, then maybe we should re-evaluate whether we should really care so much.
Saints, vol. 2, pp. 646
Saints, vol. 2, pp. 647
